A few years ago, while delivering the Palkhivala Memorial Lecture in Mumbai on the then Finance Minister Jaswant Singh's Budget, P Chidambaram made the perceptive comment that it was the most unfunded budget in the country's history. There was no provision in the Annual Financial Statement on many new items of expenditure. Now, ironically, it is the turn of Yashwant Sinha to point out how Chidambaram's budget is silent on expenditure on such proposals as debt waiver! Any issue of bonds to banks by way of compensation for debt waiver and relief, especially when staggered over three years, will put them in the same predicament as the oil marketing companies burdened with similar IOUs. The bonds are not likely to qualify for investments to meet the Statutory Liquidity Ratio. In case of depreciation in their values, the banks will face the same problems they experienced a few years ago in adhering to prudential norms. The difficulties are cropping up at a time when the system is in transition to Basel-II norms. There is an ominous suggestion in some official quarters that banks that have already made provisions for the overdues of farm loans may not be given the compensation. It will be unfair to them. The overdue loans will still remain part of the gross non-performing assets of the institutions, reflecting on their soundness. The loan waiver does not solve the problem of farmer distress. The inequity in the definition of marginal or small farmers based only on cultivated holding is obvious. According to the budget document, a marginal farmer is one with a holding up to one hectare and a small farmer is one with holdings between one and two hectares. A farmer with, say, five hectares of rain-fed land in Pali Marwar in Rajasthan is economically in no better condition than one with two hectares with assured irrigation families in Ludhiana in the Punjab. But the former will not be eligible for the waiver. The need for adopting an income criterion for defining the size of farms was discussed in detail in the Reserve Bank of India's Report on the Seventh Follow-Up Rural Credit Survey entitled "The Small Farmers

While we all get ready for elections, fiscal rectitude will be a priority for the next government. The curtains have finally come down. The Budget has provided a clear indication of things to come. In a year when 11 states will go for elections and the sword of Damocles for the general elections hanging, a populist fiscal stance is only to be expected. Unfortunately, a populist Budget never fully appeases anyone. Those who get the sops want more and those who do not get them get more upset. This Budget attempts to target the benefits to sections of farmers and urban middle class and when the Pay Commission report is submitted, to the government employees. It is yet to be seen whether the largesse will translate into votes, but surely, these measures will impact for several more years. The Economic Survey was candid about the need for austerity in the prevailing environment, but the Budget does not seem to care. The Budget for 2008-09 has been formulated in the background of moderating growth, a difficult international environment, unimpressive agricultural performance, rising world oil prices, surging capital flows and continued infrastructure bottlenecks. Austere fiscal policy was required not only to provide a counter-cyclical stance but also to keep interest rates low and manage capital inflows better. Acceleration in growth required significant augmenting infrastructure investment. Rationalising subsidies and increase in investment were necessary to accelerate the agricultural growth rate to 4 per cent. It was also hoped that the finance minister would initiate reforms in the excise tax regime to move towards a goods and services tax (GST). To be fair, higher allocations have been made in the Budget for some of the infrastructure sectors though capital expenditure as a ratio of GDP shows a decline. The energy sector's allocation is 30 per cent higher, the roads and transport sector's 22 per cent higher, and communication sector's 32 per cent higher. There are substantially higher allocations to the six components of the Bharat Nirman Programme, which are in the nature of improving connectivity and rural infrastructure. The total plan expenditure in the Union Budget shows an increase of 17.3 per cent over the revised estimate for 2007-08, though this is just about one-half of the level in 2004-05. However, plan capital expenditure shows an increase of just 5.3 per cent, and at 0.6 per cent of GDP this is worrisome. Thus, there has been a significant increase in plan expenditure, but not for creating infrastructure but for various schemes, most of which are in the states' domain. The funds for these programmes are transferred directly to the third level of government or other implementing agencies because the central government wants to claim ownership and clearly, in many places accountability and delivery systems have yet to be put in place. Economists judge the Budget on the basis of its likely macroeconomic impact and policy signals it gives. In the context of surge in capital flows, it was necessary to keep the interest rates low and allow the RBI to undertake market stabilisation to ensure relatively stable exchange rates at least in the short term. That called for containing the fiscal deficit at even lower than the target set under the FRBM Act. For 2007-08, thanks to the buoyant revenues from direct taxes, it was possible to overreach the target, though some expenditure liabilities, particularly on subsidies, have not been fully taken account of. The revenue deficit for 2008-09 relative to GDP is estimated at 1 per cent and the fiscal deficit at 2.5 per cent. Indeed, although phasing out the revenue deficit is mandated in the FRBM Act, it was unrealistic to expect reduction in the deficit by 1.5 percentage points in one year. Budgets are like fashion girls on the ramp; what they hide raises more curiosity than what they reveal. However, most observers have been quick to point out that the fiscal deficit is clearly an underestimate for it does not take account of some important liabilities. First, the Budget estimates do not include the impact of implementing the Sixth Pay Commission. It may be recalled that it was the pay revision in 1997-98 that led to an era of high fiscal imbalances and this alone could add to the fiscal deficit by about half a percentage point of GDP. The second important omission is provision for loan waiver. This is estimated to cost Rs 60,000 crore and or a little over 1 per cent of GDP. That is not all. Despite claims to transparency, the subsidy numbers clearly look under-budgeted. In the case of fertilisers, for example, the Budget estimate for 2008-09 at Rs 30,986 crore is close to the revised estimate for 2007-08 (Rs 30,501 crore). Of course, this does not take account of the Rs 7,500 crore bonds given to fertiliser companies. That is not all. The subsidy accruing to fertiliser companies based on the estimated sale of fertiliser would not be less than Rs 60,000 crore in 2007-08 and to that extent the deficit numbers for 2007-08 are suspect. This is the problem with a Budget prepared on the basis of cash and not accrual accounting. Finally, it is not clear how the finance minister will find an additional Rs 10,000 crore for Gross Budgetary Support for the plan when revenues are estimated to grow at 17.5 per cent and direct taxes at close to 20 per cent even after taking into account the increase in the exemption limit in personal income tax and reduction in excise duties. By this reckoning, the fiscal deficit and off budget liabilities should at least be higher by another 2 per cent of GDP. On changes in tax policy, reduction in the CENVAT rate to 14 per cent, increase in the threshold for service tax and reduction in the Central Sales Tax would help in eventually introducing GST. But the measures stop there. This was the opportunity to extend the base of service tax to all services and universalise input tax credit to convert the CENVAT into a manufacturing stage GST. The tinkering in excise rates has continued and this does not make sense. The policy makers are still to understand that crowding the tax policy with too many objectives only adds to administrative complexity and creates pressure groups. On the whole, difficult days are ahead and while we all get ready for elections, fiscal rectitude will be a priority for the next government, whoever comes to power!

BUDGET 2008-09 IMPACT The Rs 60,000 crore loan waiver for farmers announced in this year's Budget is being projected as a major achievement of Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar in his stronghold and sugar cane country western Maharashtra. The minister has unleashed a blitzkrieg of advertisements of his Nationalist Congress Party, addressing sugar cane farmers there. On the other hand, Congress leaders in the party stronghold of Vidarbha are on the defensive, even as farmer groups are openly saying that Pawar engineered the package to weaken the Congress in Vidarbha. The political sub-plot to the waiver has once again added to the agony of the dryland farmers who were earlier denied a waiver when the prime minister announced a relief package. The waiver benefits sugar cane and horticulture crops vastly, while the benefits for cotton farmers and those doing unirrigated farming are minimal. For, while loan available for dryland farming is Rs 4,000 an acre, it is Rs 50,000 for irrigated farming, which sugar cane farmers do. Hence the waiver will be a lottery for farmers in western Maharashtra and in Pawar's constituency of Baramati. The advertisements seek to drive the point home. The full page advertisements appearing in Marathi newspapers on March 1, with several pictures of Pawar, trumpet home the fact that the waiver is meant to benefit the sugar cane and horticulture farmers of western Maharashtra rather than the cotton farmers of Vidarbha. Pawar's advertisements in newspaper Sakal's Nagpur edition, for instance, talk about how loans for tractors will be waived. The advertisements in Lokmat and Tarun Bharat, which appeared on March 1, also splashed Pawar's picture and highlighted the waiver saying that loans for pipes, wells, tractors and buying of cattle would be waived. The Sakal advertisement, which says

The real winner is the small car buyer who will have to pay Rs 5,000 to Rs 20,000 less for his purchase.

No one asks the farmerBringing up babus With its Rs 600 billion farm loan waiver in the current budget, the government has applied some band aid to the financial haemorrhaging of India's farmers. It is another matter that the hurt is at some other place. The farmer has difficulty in obtaining cheap and reliable credit; various laws prevent him from selling his produce at the most competitive prices in the open market; there is no reliable advice available to him on how best to tend his fields in an economical manner; existing farming techniques, guided by corporate interests, continue to suck life out of the soil without replenishing it and there is no system of health security in the villages. On all these counts, the government has yet to show even minimal movement. The farm loan waiver gives the impression that farmers do not wish to repay their loans. This is a serious misrepresentation of the ground reality. According to figures from the NABARD, only some 10 per cent of the farmers default on bank loans. And even then, it is rarely that farming assets are taken away by the banks for failure to pay back loans. The problem for farmers lies in the loans taken from informal sources: moneylender and relatives. Often, the moneylender himself is a prosperous neighbourhood farmer. He gives large loans that are beyond the paying capacity of the borrower. These loans come with exorbitant rates of interest and severe penalties for default. The lender here does not falter in taking away farming assets, including land. After all, this could be a strategy for acquiring more land for himself. The advice of the agriculture minister a few days ago at Mumbai that farmers need not pay back loans taken from

Expressing concern over rising food prices, finance minister P Chidambaram said he had not forgotten the corporate sector and defended the Rs 60,000 crore farm loan waiver on the ground that the money would flow to a distressed segment of the productive sector where the output was either stagnant or falling. "One of the reasons why inflation is still a threat is food prices in India,' Chidambaram said, adding that after a long gap, India has become a marginal importer of foodgrain, which is a dangerous sign. "Because we are dependent on import, we are subject to world prices... No country with as large a population as India can be dependent on imports (of foodgrain),' he said at the postbudget interactive session with industry chambers. Since April 2007, prices of wheat in the global market has risen by 88% and that of rice by 15%, he said. "Taking all this into consideration, we came to the conclusion that farmers' distress called for an unorthodox response... the response was farm loan waiver,' Chidambaram said. The wholesale price-based inflation rose to 4.89% from 4.35% in the previous week. Responding to the issues raised by the corporate sector, he said, "I have not forgotten the corporate sector. Despite the advice given by my chief economic advisor and suggestion from Economic Survey, we accepted your (corporates) demand of retaining peak customs duty rate.' He said excise duty reductions and relief given in personal income tax would help in spurring demand for consumer goods and benefit the industry. Exports grow 20.5% in January India's exports showed a healthy growth of 20.47% in January this fiscal over the same month last year, but expanded by a single digit figure of 7.66% in rupee terms due to pricey domestic currency. Exports increased to $13.14 billion in January 2008 from $10.9 billion a year ago, while imports grew by a huge 63.57% to $22.50 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $9.36 billion. PTI

The growing relevance of India's newly-minted "trillion-dollar economy' to the changing global economic order was emphasised at a seminar here on Monday in the context of Finance Minister P. Chidambaram's 2008-2009 budget. India's High Commissioner to Singapore S. Jaishankar said China, as "a political aside' in this emerging global story, "has now overtaken the United States as India's largest trading partner.' K. Venugopal, Joint Editor of The Hindu and The Hindu Business Line, traced some "fantastic aspects of India's growth story' but cautioned that the current trends of "a miserable show' in the power sector and project slippages in the overall infrastructure domain could still "stop ... the trillion-dollar economy from cantering' at a comfortable pace. KPMG India Executive Director Girish Vanvari said the Finance Minister had opted for "cautious' projections for the future, keeping in mind the current reality that "the Indian economy is on a roll.' Setting the tone for the seminar, organised by KPMG and the Singapore Indian Chamber of Commerce & Industry in association with The Hindu Business Line, Dr. Jaishankar said: "We are now, probably for the first year, talking about the budget of a trillion-dollar economy. We are talking about a country, where there is a 150 per cent increase in the net FDI flows, where the outward investments have actually also gone up almost seven times over what it used to be in 2003-2004, where the trade-to-GDP ratio has gone up very sharply. The [latest] budget, like any other happening in India, has a certain immediate context and a longer-term context in terms of reform.' Key factors Outlining the budget proposals in the context of what Mr. Chidambaram might have had on his mind, Mr. Venugopal spelt out an array of factors that served as the political and economic background. These were the possibility of general elections within the next 14 months; farm suicides; the drop in public investment in the agricultural sector; some indices of an economic slowdown; the appreciating rupee; the surge in foreign investment inflows; the ebb and flow of the stock market trends which, in the last six months, were "not bad' compared to the U.S. and Chinese markets; "the divergent worms' in regard to trade deficit; and the political sniping at "an economy on the downswing.' He summed up the "budget response' as follows: Rs. 60,000-crore debt waiver for small and marginal farmers; tax breaks for individuals, not companies; and excise duty reduction from 16 per cent Cenvat to 14 per cent, with no sops for exporters. Posing the question whether these proposals would work, Mr. Venugopal said: "Not everyone in the political world congratulates Mr. Chidambaram for the debt waiver. [Some] say he has not done enough. Why is India's agriculture on the rocks? One reason is that irrigation projects have failed to deliver in the last decade or so. The government's Economic Survey conceded as much. The weakening farm pulse [is such that] the only thing that has grown smartly is credit supply.' On income tax, he said the Finance Minister was "like India's spinners: flight the ball more and probably you will get the batsman out.' The growth of the economy "is delivering a lot more as tax revenues for the government.' Citing some "concerns,' including rising food prices, and turning the focus on "some very bright spots' such as the telecom and aviation sectors, Mr. Venugopal said, "The agenda is [still] pretty long' for the future. In addressing it, Mr. Chidambaram might also have to reckon with the "fragility of the coalition that he is part of.' Mr. Girish Vanvari gave an expert overview of the budget matrix of direct and indirect taxes. Vishal Sharma, KPMG Singapore Executive Director, presided.

Even before the applause for a Budget

Delivering the Third Sumitra Chishti Memorial Lecture here on Monday, The Hindu Rural Affairs Editor, P. Sainath, methodically demolished the "historical and unprecedented' Union budgetary farmer loan waiver stating that the worst affected farmers were rendered ineligible as they possessed more than the stipulated two hectare land holdings. "In Vidharbha, over 50 per cent of land holdings are over 7.5 acres [around 3 hectares] and of the remaining 50 per cent, 25 per cent have restricted access to banks. There is nothing in the budget that increases the income of farmers or stabilises prices,' he said. Agrarian crisis Speaking on the agrarian crisis, the Magsaysay Award winner said over 1.5 lakh farmers had committed suicide in the past five years. A farmer killed himself every 30 minutes and the number of such suicides had increased from 15,000 a year between 1997 and 2001 to 17,000 a year in the 2002-06 period. "Just like each case of child labour has a personal history behind it, every farmer suicide had a multiplicity of causes. But the larger canvas or backdrop that leads to such suicides is common and stems from certain undeniable causes.' Enumerating these causative factors, Mr. Sainath said there had been a transfer of funds from the poor to the rich, an unprecedented growth of the corporate sector and gross undermining of local sovereignty and governance. "Farming has been rendered so unviable at the small-scale level that there are not many takers for it and the relentless drive towards corporate farming has just hastened the demise of the small farm not just in India but the world over,' said the eminent journalist.

The discussion on the President's address got off to a confrontationist and bitter start in Lok Sabha on Monday with NDA and UPA benches repeatedly interrupting each other even as Leader of Opposition L K Advani called on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to reveal how the mega loan waiver would be funded. Advani said while a relief package for farmers was welcome, it was incumbent on government to tell Parliament how it intended to compensate banks and cooperatives for the Rs 60,000 crore sop. "Will this be by way of bonds that will be redeemed later?' he asked. He also pointed out that rural distress had been aggravated by price rise. The Radhakrishnan report on indebtedness said that there were a range of factors that were adding to the farmers' burden. Many farmers who were facing a debt trap had borrowed heavily from private money lenders. He sought to link the waiver with the possibility of an early election and said "since last August there has been uncertainty' referring to Congress-Left brinksmanship over the India-US nuclear deal. He said an unstable government could not deliver. Advani was interrupted with Congress MPs questioning him on issues like the record on combatting terror and BJP's position on Telangana. The heckling seemed part of a pre-planned script. Congress chief Sonia Gandhi's decision to sit on the last bench during the debate seemed to encourage her MPs who competed with one another in aggressively defending the party. The loan waiver issue also had an echo in Rajya Sabha with BJP and CPM charging the Centre with not addressing the real concerns of the poor. Participating in the discussion on the motion of thanks, Abhishek Singhvi (Congress) said the economy had grown by over 8% in the last four years. "But this gung-ho spirit has to be tempered' in the face of hard reality of 25% people still living below the poverty line.