Food, energy, and water are three critical resources for humanity. As climate variability, population growth, and lifestyle changes amplify the stress placed on each of the resources, the interrelationships among food, energy, and water systems become more pronounced. Political conflict, social and cultural norms, and spatial and temporal distribution of the resources add additional layers of complexity. It is in this context that the significance of understanding the impacts of water scarcity on the decisions around food and energy productions has emerged.

Brazil plans to meet the majority of its growing electricity demand with new hydropower plants located in the Amazon basin. However, large hydropower plants located in tropical forested regions may lead to significant carbon dioxide and methane emission. Currently, no predictive models exist to estimate the greenhouse gas emissions before the reservoir is built. This paper presents two different approaches to investigate the future carbon balance of eighteen new reservoirs in the Amazon.

The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition.