Few of the sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap. Many of them lack either the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference. Estimate that of the total emissions savings that could be achieved by the pledges, around a quarter is already included in government NDCs, around a quarter is additional and achievable, and around half is unlikely to be achieved without further action to improve the initiatives. Negotiations cannot rely on the initiatives’ effect alone, but must set a clear direction in the conference texts on the direction that different sectors need to take. This must include committing to a fossil fuel phase-out alongside tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency, plus supporting this with the finance needed to make this possible.
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