Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios

Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios [1]

Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., ‘‘cold wake’’ generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980–2008) for a ‘‘control run’’ with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained from a phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) multimodel ensemble.

Original Source [2]

Publication Date:

15/09/2015

Author(s): Thomas R. Knutson [3], Joseph J. Sirutis [4], Ming Zhao [5]

Source: Journal of Climate [6]

Vol:

pp:

7203-7224

Tags: