Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., ‘‘cold wake’’ generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980–2008) for a ‘‘control run’’ with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained from a phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) multimodel ensemble.
Original Source [2]
Links:
[1] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/feature-article/global-projections-intense-tropical-cyclone-activity-late-twenty-first-century
[2] http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0129.1
[3] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/thomas-r-knutson
[4] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/joseph-j-sirutis
[5] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/ming-zhao
[6] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/journal/journal-climate
[7] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/cyclones
[8] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/north-pacific-ocean
[9] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/storms
[10] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/natural-disasters
[11] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/weather-predictions