An approach to build an event set of European wind storms based on ECMWF EPS

An approach to build an event set of European wind storms based on ECMWF EPS [1]

The properties of European wind storms under present climate conditions are estimated on the basis of surface wind forecasts from the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). While the EPS is designed to provide forecast information of the range of possible weather developments starting from the observed state of weather, we use its archive in a climatological context. It provides a large number of modifications of observed storm events, and includes storms that did not occur in reality. Thus it is possible to create a large sample of storm events, which entirely originate from a physically consistent model, whose ensemble spread represents feasible alternative storm realizations of the covered period. This paper shows that the huge amount of identifiable events in the EPS is applicable to reduce uncertainties in a wide range of fields of research focusing on winter storms.

Publication Date:

09/02/2015

Author(s): R. Osinski [2], P. Lorenz [3], T. Kruschke & et al [4]

Source: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences - Discussions [5]

pp:

1231–1268

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