A new paper published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation explains how statistical forecasting methods can provide an important contrast to climate model-based predictions of future global warming. The repeated failures of economic models to generate accurate predictions has taught many economists a healthy scepticism about the ability of their own models, regardless of how complex, to provide reliable forecasts. Statistical forecasting has proven in many cases to be a superior alternative. Like the economy, the climate is a deeply complex system that defies simple representation. Climate modelling thus faces similar problems. This paper explains how statistical time-series forecasting methods are being applied to climatic processes.
Links:
[1] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/reports-documents/statistical-forecasting-how-fast-will-future-warming-be
[2] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/terence-c-mills
[3] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/publisher/global-warming-policy-foundation
[4] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/global-warming
[5] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/climate-change
[6] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/green-house-gases
[7] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/climate-economics
[8] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/remote-sensing