Using mathematical models to extend knowledge of pathogen transmission and recommend optimized control efforts is dependent on the accuracy of model parameters. The rate at which susceptible individuals become infected [the force of infection (FoI)] is one of the most important parameters, but due to data constraints it is often incorrectly assumed to be constant over time. Using a bespoke method for a 12-y longitudinal dataset of serotype-specific dengue virus (DENV) infections, we estimated time-varying, serotype-specific FoIs for all four DENV serotypes. The FoI varied markedly in time, which implies that DENV transmission dynamics are complex and are best summarized using time-dependent transmission parameters. Our results provide more accurate measures of virus transmission dynamics and a basis for improving selection of control and disease prevention strategies.
Links:
[1] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/feature-article/time-varying-serotype-specific-force-infection-dengue-virus
[2] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/robert-c-reiner
[3] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/jr
[4] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/steven-t-stoddard
[5] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/brett-m-forshey-et-al
[6] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/journal/proceedings-national-academy-sciences
[7] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/dengue
[8] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/viral-diseases
[9] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/tropical-diseases
[10] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/research