Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study

Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study [1]

An attribution study has been performed to investigate the degree to which the unusually cold European winter of 2009/10 was modified by anthropogenic climate change. Two different methods have been included for the attribution: one based on large HadGEM3-A ensembles and one based on a statistical surrogate method. Both methods are evaluated by comparing simulated winter temperature means, trends, standard deviations, skewness, return periods, and 5% quantiles with observations. While the surrogate method performs well, HadGEM3-A in general underestimates the trend in winter by a factor of ⅔. It has a mean cold bias dominated by the mountainous regions and also underestimates the cold 5% quantile in many regions of Europe.

Original Source [2]

Publication Date:

01/05/2018

Author(s): Bo Christiansen [3], Carmen Alvarez-Castro [4], Nikolaos Christidis & et al [5]

Source: Journal of Climate [6]

Vol:

pp:

3387-3410

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