This report highlights the headline risks to consider in climate resilient development planning for the East Africa region. Key climate-related risks for East Africa have been identified by considering how the current climate interacts with underlying socio-economic vulnerabilities, and how projected climate change for the 2050s may exacerbate these risks. East Africa is considered in this report as including: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. The region has a diverse climate, ranging from hot, dry desert regions, to cooler, wetter highland regions, and large variability in seasonal rainfall. The current climate is around 1-1.5˚C warmer than pre-industrial times, and there is high confidence of further warming in the future. There is less confidence about how rainfall has changed in the past or may change in the future. However, future projections indicate an increase in mean rainfall across most of the region, with high confidence for an increase over the Ethiopian highlands. Interannual variability in seasonal rainfall amounts and timings is expected to increase, as is the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events.
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