Meteorology isn't what it used to be predicting monsoons may become costlier now. An increase in the frequency of extreme weather events like intense rainfall has magnified the errors in observations and calculations required for predicting the weather.

Chances for an error occurring depend on these parameters: the location of the observation unit, time period and the infrastructure involved.

Weather data like moisture level, temperature, sunshine hours and cloud cover are fed into complex models which are designed to mathematically calculate and predict the weather of a future date. Such data are not exactly the same at different locations within the same region. Due to this variation errors creep in. Besides, none of the existing models is perfect and this contributes further to errors.

for full text: http://server-t88.e2enetworks.net.in/node/3459 [2]