Socioeconomic challenges continue to mount for half a billion residents of central India because of a decline in the total rainfall and a concurrent rise in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. Alongside a weakening monsoon circulation, the locally available moisture and the frequency of moisture-laden depressions from the Bay of Bengal have also declined. Here we show that despite these negative trends, there is a threefold increase in widespread extreme rain events over central India during 1950–2015.
The operational medium-range weather forecasting based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are complemented by the forecast products based on ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). This change has been recognised as an essentially useful tool for medium-range forecasting and is now finding its place in forecasting the extreme events. Here we investigate extreme events (heatwaves) using a high-resolution NWP model and its ensemble models in union with the classical statistical scores to serve verification purposes.