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Home > Featured Articles > Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts > Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts

Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts [1]

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Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

Publication Date: 
13/07/2010
Michael D. Mastrandrea [2], Timothy C. Bonebrake [3]
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences [4]
107
28
12581
Tags:
Ecosystems [5], Climate Change [6], Global Warming [7], Climate Impacts [8], Climate Adaptation [9], Biodiversity [10], Rainfall [11], Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences [4], Michael D. Mastrandrea [2], Timothy C. Bonebrake [3]
Centre for Science and Environment
National Knowledge Commission Government of India

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Source URL: http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/feature-article/tolerance-adaptation-and-precipitation-changes-complicate-latitudinal-patterns

Links:
[1] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/feature-article/tolerance-adaptation-and-precipitation-changes-complicate-latitudinal-patterns
[2] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/michael-d-mastrandrea
[3] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/timothy-c-bonebrake
[4] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/journal/proceedings-national-academy-sciences
[5] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/ecosystems
[6] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/climate-change
[7] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/global-warming
[8] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/climate-impacts
[9] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/climate-adaptation
[10] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/biodiversity
[11] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/rainfall