The objective of this report is to analyse the current status and outlook for decarbonization of the heavy-duty vehicle sector in the EU. The authors focus on developments over the coming 10 years, and how much the sector’s emissions could be reduced through energy efficiency improvements, electrification, and increased biofuel deployment. The authors constructed three indicative pathways to showcase different trajectories to reach the 2050 net-zero target. The estimated emissions reduction from three measures’ categories would equal 24% compared to the 2019 emission levels; this overall reduction is not in line with the more “aggressive” of the three pathways, i.e. the pathway already under way with a linear decrease of emissions to net zero in 2050.
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