Unless developing Asia decarbonizes its development, global warming is unlikely to stay below the internationally agreed limit of 2°C above preindustrial levels. Integrated assessment modeling offers insights into how a low carbon transition can be achieved. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change incorporated an ambitious model intercomparison effort that compiled thousands of model-scenario combinations to consider low carbon development pathways. This paper explores the evidence within that database to consider decarbonization pathways for developing Asia. Overall, a comparison of the major models finds strong consistency in the transformation of the energy sector required to achieve Paris Agreement goals. This includes a rapid decline in the share of coal—a mainstay of the power sector in developing Asia—and a substantial rise in renewable energy. The cost of the transition can be relatively low if mitigation efforts are efficient, as assumed in the models. [2]
Links:
[1] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/reports-documents/decarbonization-pathways-developing-asia-evidence-modeling-scenarios
[2] http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Decarbonization Pathways in Developing Asia.pdf
[3] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/publisher/asian-development-bank
[4] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/climate-change
[5] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/green-house-gases
[6] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/carbon-dioxide
[7] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/india
[8] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/asia