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Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools [1]

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km2, nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots.

Publication Date: 
02/10/2012
Karen C. Seto [2], Burak Güneralp [3], Lucy R. Hutyra [4]
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences [5]
109
40
16083–16088
Tags:
Urban Habitat [6], Urban Land Use [7], Biodiversity Hotspots [8], Asia [9], China [10], India [11], Carbon Dioxide [12], Deforestation [13], Urbanisation [14], Infrastructure Development [15], Global [16], Western Ghats [17], Sri Lanka [18]

Technology Partners: MimirTech

Source URL: http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/feature-article/global-forecasts-urban-expansion-2030-and-direct-impacts-biodiversity-and-carbon

Links:
[1] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/feature-article/global-forecasts-urban-expansion-2030-and-direct-impacts-biodiversity-and-carbon
[2] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/karen-c-seto-0
[3] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/burak-g%C3%BCneralp
[4] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/author/lucy-r-hutyra
[5] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/journal/proceedings-national-academy-sciences
[6] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/urban-habitat
[7] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/urban-land-use
[8] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/biodiversity-hotspots
[9] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/asia
[10] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/china
[11] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/india
[12] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/carbon-dioxide
[13] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/deforestation
[14] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/urbanisation
[15] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/infrastructure-development
[16] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/global
[17] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/western-ghats
[18] http://admin.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/category/thesaurus/sri-lanka