Within large uncertainties in the precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing, the Southeast Pacific drying stands out as a robust signature within climate models. A precipitation decline, of consistent direction but of larger amplitude than obtained in simulations with historical climate forcing, has been observed in central Chile since the late 1970s. To attribute the causes of this trend, we analyze local rain gauge data and contrast them to a large ensemble of both fully coupled and sea surface temperature-forced simulations.

The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets, which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such summer insolation is near to its minimum at present4, and there are no signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next glacial inception6.

This report presents the Committee’s advice on the fifth carbon budget, covering the period 2028-32, as required under Section 34 of the Climate Change Act 2008. The Committee recommends that the fifth carbon budget is set at 1,765 MtCO2e, including emissions from international shipping, over the period 2028-2032.

This paper identifies rare climate challenges in the long-term history of seven areas, three in the subpolar North Atlantic Islands and four in the arid-to-semiarid deserts of the US Southwest. For each case, the vulnerability to food shortage before the climate challenge is quantified based on eight variables encompassing both environmental and social domains. These data are used to evaluate the relationship between the “weight” of vulnerability before a climate challenge and the nature of social change and food security following a challenge.

We analyzed a dataset from an experiment of an earth system model of intermediate complexity, focusing on the change in transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) after atmospheric CO2 concentration was stabilized in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. We estimated the TCRE in 2005 at 0.3–2.4 K/TtC for an unconstrained case and 1.1–1.7 K/TtC when constrained with historical and present-day observational data, the latter result being consistent with other studies.

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