Risk factors that could affect the economic outlook are present and relatively prevalent, despite signs that the COVID-19 health crisis could ease significantly. Continuation of the war in Ukraine and prolonged restrictions on exports from Russia could put further upward pressure on food and energy prices. This would weigh heavily on commodity imports from countries in the region, increase food insecurity, fuel social tensions, and penalise the most vulnerable segments of the population. Furthermore, political instability and increased security risks (particularly in Cameroon, CAR, and DRC) could significantly worsen the economic outlook.