Is the 2007-08 fiscal deficit 3.1 per cent of GDP, or is it 3.5 per cent

The All-India Democratic Women's Association (AIDWA) has hailed Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram's initiative of taking cognisance of the huge agrarian crisis and taking steps to bring relief to farmers, who include a large number of women also. In a statement, Subhashini Ali, president, and Sudha Sundararaman, general secretary of the AIDWA, said the measures for debt waiver and debt relief did not, however, address the critical issue of loans taken from private moneylenders. Secondly, many regions in the grip of crisis such as Vidharbha and Rayalaseema were dry land, where individual holdings were usually more than two hectares, eligible for relief. The crucial question of reduction in the rate of interest to 4 per cent on agricultural loans was ignored. Finally, it was not just debt relief but rejuvenation of the entire agricultural sector through a massive increase in public spending that would alleviate this crisis, the statement said. After four years, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government heeded to the voice of lakhs of anganwadi employees but their demand for an increase in wages was met only partially. Secondly, the budget did not reflect the allocations for universalisation of the Integrated Child Development Services and make 14 lakh anganwadi centres functional by the end of 2008 as per a Supreme Court directive, especially at a time when child malnourishment and infant mortality continued to remain high. Given the huge increase in the prices of essential commodities, especially wheat, rice, pulses, it was expected that the budget would suggest measures to curb inflation, which was exacerbated by the recent increase in fuel prices. Food security The statement said the UPA gave an undertaking in the Common Minimum Programme (CMP) to strengthen the public distribution system and move towards universalising it. However, the meagre increase in the food subsidy allocation from Rs. 31,456 crore last year to Rs. 32,667 crore was hardly adequate to ensure basic food security for more than 70 per cent of the population that lived below poverty line. "This cannot meet the needs of food-deficit States such as Kerala, as well as States that were adversely affected by the recent cuts in allocations of foodgrains,' it said. The allocations for health and education remained far below the targets set in the CMP and the decision to shift the burden of the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan to the States showed the lack of commitment of the Centre to implement the constitutional guarantee of right to education. "As far as gender budgeting is concerned, we welcome the fact that more Ministries had provided a gender budget analysis of their expenditure,' the statement added.

P. Chidambaram Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Saturday conceded that the challenge thrown to Opposition members who were dubbing the Rs. 60,000-crore farm loan waiver programme proposed in the Union Budget for 2008-09 as an election sop "to stand up and be counted and not duck the issue' was, in fact, a political one. "It is

A day after presenting his fifth Budget in the UPA government, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said budgets did not win elections, unless they were properly marketed. In a detailed interview on Saturday, Chidambaram said he still aimed at nine per cent growth for the economy in 2008-09. He also indicated that the surcharges on income-tax should go, provided revenues remained buoyant. Excerpts from the interview: You have presented five budgets in a row and looking back at them, what would make you the happiest about them and what would disappoint you? My happiest moments would be that my batting average so far has been 8.8 per cent. That is the economy. What about the Budget per se? The Budget was intended to set the course and pace of the economy and I think we have done fiscal consolidation, although we can argue about some items below the line. I think we have demonstrated that moderate and stable tax rates bring better tax compliance. We have demonstrated what inclusive growth is, that instead of being fixated only on growth, we can use the growth process to promote inclusive growth. I think these are many of the happy memories of the last four years. The disappointment is that we should have taken the reform process forward faster. There are still large areas of the economy which are under government controls. And if these controls had been removed, the economy would have grown faster. In case this is your last Budget? I will be happy if this is my last Budget. There are other things to do in life. People are calling this as an election Budget. Is that the way to look at it? For the last few years, every Budget has been an election Budget because every year is an election year. 2006 was an election year, 2007 was an election year, and 2008 is an election year. I think that is not a very correct way to describe it. I have presented the fifth Budget of this government and, according to schedule, the elections are in May 2009. So I would not agree that it is an election Budget. Will it help you win the elections? Budgets do not decide elections. It is how you communicate to the people what the Budget contains and what it wishes to do in the next year, which happens to be the election year. Take, for example, the Tamil Nadu state elections in 2006. It was the election manifesto which won the election. Likewise, a Budget, if it is communicated well to the people, can help win an election and what is wrong in that? You have done a Budget where there is a lot for the people, for farmers, for the middle class, tax payers, although companies are unhappy. So having done this, why not just go ahead and sign the nuclear deal and tell the Left if it wants to withdraw support, it can go ahead, as you now have something to go to the people with? These are the questions you need to address to the UPA leadership and the Prime Minister. I am only a finance minister. You have introduced many new taxes over the years and now you removed one of them, the banking cash transaction tax. I said so even when I introduced it. It is not a tax revenue raising measure. It is only a source of income issue. I would like to go back to your speech in 1997 when you said I propose to amend certain sections of the Income-Tax Act, to provide for the removal of artificial disallowances, travel and hotel expenses incurred for legitimate business purposes and you said it was a matter of simplification. So using that logic, why would you not do away with the fringe benefit tax, as a matter of simplification? I have explained this a number of times. I can deal with that expenditure as allowable or disallowable expenditure, which means I need discretion in the hands of the assessees. It was the assessing officer who enjoyed the discretion for many years until we brought in FBT. Now the assessing officer has no discretion. If this expenditure is made, you can take a base of 50 per cent or 20 per cent and we tax it. I think this is far better than leaving discretion in the hands of the assessing officer to decide whether the expenditure is allowable or to be disallowed. There is complication in FBT on employee stock options, for which industry might have come to you hundreds of times. I will take you into confidence. The FBT on employee stock options has been worked out in close consultation with industry CFOs. On the personal income-tax front, a tax payer may see halving of his income tax liability. If somebody makes Rs 5 lakh a year, he is earning Rs 40,000 a month. Most probably he lives in a city or a town. Rs 40,000 in a city or a town for a family is not a very large income. Of course, we have given him the tax relief, because compliance has increased, revenues have improved and I think moderation by adjusting the slabs will bring in more revenues. You will lose some of the revenue due to changes in the slabs. A large number of people move on to pay tax so that they can have a larger part of income on their balance-sheet and they can build capital. So when we move the tax slab, an assessee would not stop paying tax. He will still pay the tax that he paid the previous year and even build more capital for himself. So, we will get the revenues. You have assumed that income-tax revenue will climb by 18 per cent in 2008-09. It is a very reasonable assumption. People paying tax will continue to pay tax. They will simply comply better and I do not want to say anything more. They have been very nice to the Government in the past few years. Why should I say anything unkind about tax payers? Compliance will improve and I am sure everybody will comply better and we will get the revenues. That is our assumption and that is our assessment of the situation. There is no reason to assume that direct taxes will not grow at the same rate as this year. That is the question I have on corporation tax, because the trend in corporate profits shows a clear slowdown and is now running at around 15 per cent. Yet you assume a more than 20 per cent increase in corporation tax next year? I expect the demand to push up corporate toplines as well as bottomlines. There are signs that the global economy may slow down. Is it time to ensure that India keeps away from it by taking some measures? I said so in my speech that there is a slowdown especially in the consumer goods, and more particularly in consumer durables. I have identified various sectors - cars, two-wheelers, three-wheelers, paper and we have even cut taxes for buses and chasses. What about the corporation tax rate? Companies are doing well. They are making good profits. They are paying good taxes and it still works out to about 22 to 23 per cent effective tax rate for all companies. There is no reason to tinker with it this year. Why fix something which is not broken? You have been listing tax concessions that the government gives away. Would it not make sense to drop the nominal rate and remove some of the concessions? If you can get me agreement from the three chiefs of the chambers of commerce on which concessions can be removed, I will be very happy to do that. Every exemption provision has a lobby behind it. Let us now turn to the biggest announcement of the Budget, the farm loan waiver scheme. One of the questions is that it is meant only for those whose loans are overdue. But what about those who have sold their jewellery, land and have actually repaid the loans but will not get the benefit? So, what can I do about it? See it is always easy to pit one against the other. People will say what about those who borrowed from moneylenders. There is nothing I can do about it. There is no quantification of that

Rs 60k-crore farm loan waiver, I-T exemption limit raised. P Chidambaram unveiled a Budget cleverly designed to win him many popularity contests. There were concessions on the income tax, reductions in customs and excise duties, and the mother of all farm loan waivers. While playing to multiple galleries, the finance minister also managed to reduce the fiscal deficit to lower than the target set under the fiscal responsibility law, and showed progress on the revenue deficit. Along the way, he designed his announcements so as to attack the twin problems confronting the economy: inflation (the excise and customs cuts will help lower prices) and falling consumer demand (lower tax rates for small cars and two-wheelers, and more money in people's pockets from the income tax concessions). Keeping in mind the Congressman's favoured

Unemployment is a common global economic malady, the level of which distintly varies between developed and under developed nations with Keynesian involuntary and frictional type in respect of developed nation and structural type as regard to under developed country like India which contributes to maximum growth of population and insignificant economic growth. Under employment or disguised employment has intensified its dimensions mainly in the rural sector where despite having capacity and willingness, persons fail to avail any gainful activities and as such job seekers out-number the job availability creating a major wastage of manpower. Unemployment in our country is partly due to overwhelming growth of population which has occurred in view of immigration from earstwhile East Pakistan and partially due to non-availability of land, less productivity, lack of industrial infrastructure, haphazard growth of educational institutions and expansion of education which is responsible for cropping up of new entrants in an already over crowded labour market. Agriculture being a seasonal activity fails to provide employment to rural masses throughout the year while perennial activity is not available in reality owing to excessive pressure of population. Exodus from rural areas coupled with slow pace of industrialisation has proved to be a constrain in providing employment opportunity to the growing urban population. Rapid expansion of general education mingted with slow growth of technical and vocational facilities has resulted in a peculiar educated unemployment problem. Accurate estimation of unemployment has become a tough task in view of ever increasing unemployment and under employment and failures of employment exchanges in recording correct figures. While unemployment in this State as a percentage of labour force has become double as compared to the country within 1985-2000 as per NSSO report, it is estimated to be 10.9% of total labour force with a total of 13 lakh (71%) registered educated job seekers, HSLC passed (51%) out-numbered HSSLC passed (30%) and graduates (16%) while technical and post graduate job seekers constitute a very minimal (3%) percentage. Placement of job seekers increased to 16% in between 2004 and 2005 constituting minimal (0.5%) increase in public sector and 9.3% increase in private sector with nearly 31% women employment in organised sector. Rural and women unemployment has become three times to all-India rate having acute unemployment among educated. Most of the self employed or partially employed youth bother a little to inform the employment exchange about their absorption which is also responsible for non-capturing of accurate employment situation. According to the NSSO report, the number of unemployed in this State is 18 and 24 per 1000 respectively in rural and urban area as against only 9 and 19 respectively in national level indicating a greater dimension of the problem in this State. According to the task force, the rate of unemployment in this State increased from 7.96 in 1993-94 to 8 per cent in 1999-2000 which is quite high compared to all India (nearly 7%), 2.93% of Himachal Pradesh and 3.06% of Rajasthan. Youths in this State are mostly interested in Government jobs in lieu of self employment or employment in private venture, which has enhanced the demand for jobs leading to major corruption in the recruitment policy. Ban on creation of posts and restriction on filling up vacancies has created mounting unemployment problem resulting in a grave political, economic and social disorder. Despite shooting up of GDP, employment growth in the State declined significantly within 15 years in agriculture. The call of the hour is to generate job opportunities through filling up vacancies considering intellectual achievement. It is necessary to locate certain sectors where unemployed youths can be accommodated suitably leaving aside Govt assignment. According to a study, the employment elasticity of various sectors varied significantly with primary sector of elasticity 0.74, manufacturing sector 0.19, trade and commerce 0.37 with overall average of 0.45. ILO having its goal of promoting opportunities for both the sex and ensuring security, freedom and dignity depicted persistent unemployment and dismal scenario of the world's employment situation in its

India's growth is unlikely to slip below the 9% rate in the next few years, says the finance ministry's Economic Survey, but the downside risks have become stronger this year. Among those risks are the international subprime crisis and a slackening of growth in agriculture and manufacturing within the country. The other is the political opposition, because of which the Survey tabled in Parliament by finance minister P Chidambaram on Thursday has had to tuck away its 12-point list of reforms in a box, outside the main narrative. The more significant of these reforms are in the financial sector: allowing the public float of at least 10% in all public sector units, permitting FDI in retail, raising the FDI cap in insurance, besides 100% foreign investment in greenfield rural agricultural banks. The Survey says if the current growth trend persists "

While pointing out that the overall performance of the infrastructure sector of late has been

Not only is the United Progressive Alliance far from delivering on its National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP) promise of allocating six per cent of the Gross Domestic Product to education but the allocation also dipped in percentage terms in 2007-08 compared to the preceding year. According to the Economic Survey 2007-08, the Budget Estimates of the expenditure on education stood at 2.84 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal. In 2006-07, the expenditure as per the Revised Estimates was 2.88 per cent. Though the expenditure on education as a percentage of the GDP in the past two years was higher than the first two years of the UPA rule, it still falls short of the 2.9 per cent achieved in 2002-03 during the National Democratic Alliance regime. In the NCMP, the UPA pledged to raise public spending on education to at least six per cent of the GDP in a phased manner. Starting lower than 2.74 per cent of the GDP in the last year of NDA rule (2003-04), the allocation in 2004-05 was 2.67 per cent. Though it went up to 2.69 in 2005-06 and stood at 2.88 per cent in the Revised Estimates for 2006-07, the allocation is still below the halfway mark of the promised target. Last year the Planning Commission, in fact, said India could hope to achieve the target

Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram after presenting the Economic Survey 2007-08 in Parliament on Thursday. With the country's economic fundamentals strong and investment climate full of optimism, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Thursday exuded confidence on achieving an average GDP growth of nine per cent during the Eleventh Plan period (2007-08 to 2011-12) while reining in inflation alongside. As for the outlook for 2008-09, Mr. Chidambaram said: "Optimism, but with caution, is the watchword' while commenting on the policy prescriptions of the Economic Survey 2007-08 which projected a lower GDP growth of 8.7 per cent for the current fiscal and, in that light, viewed sustenance of a high growth as a daunting task. Speaking to newspersons immediately after tabling the Survey in Parliament, Mr. Chidambaram pointed out that the country was required to respond to the evolving global economic situation so as to ensure that its growth was not affected and this, he said, could be achieved by capitalising on the opportunity arising from the "favourable' conditions. "I am optimistic about growth and containment of inflation in the coming year [2008-09],' he said, while noting that his priority was to provide a conducive investment climate and manage the macro economy to facilitate non-inflationary growth. Reading out from a prepared statement which was later released to the press, Mr. Chidambaram said: "Keeping inflation under control in an uncertain global environment will be one of the major challenges in 2008-09.' He noted that the current slowdown and possible recession in the global economy posed risks to growth. On the rise in domestic savings and investment, the Finance Minister said: "We are confident of meeting the 11th Plan target of 9 per cent average growth.' The high GDP growth, he said, had benefited the common man as well, as this was reflected by a near doubling of the annual growth rate of per capita consumption to 5.1 per cent in 2007-08 compared to 2.6 per cent for the previous 11 years. "If the rate of growth of per capita GDP continues at the five-year average of 7.2 per cent per year, the average income would now double in a decade instead of a generation or more, earlier,' he said. Expressing concern over the slow pace of growth in the farm sector and bottlenecks in infrastructure development, he stressed the need for mobilising public and private resources for "inclusive' growth. In a note of confidence, the Finance Minister said: "I am optimistic about growth and containment of inflation in the coming year. It will be my priority to continue to provide a conducive investment climate and manage the macro economy to facilitate non-inflationary growth. We have to ensure that the benefits of this growth percolate to the most marginal and vulnerable segments of society.'