H5N1, the lethal avian influenza virus strain, was first reported in 1996 in China. The virus was transmitted to humans during an outbreak in 1997 in Hong Kong. Nineteen people were affected. Since then, it has struck with alarming frequency, affecting both humans and birds. It has claimed nearly 250 people across the world since 2003.60 countries have been affected so far; five in 2007. H5N1 has become persistent in Egypt and Indonesia.

“Bird flu sweeping continents is a danger signal. The number of deaths is high considering the disease is not supposed to afflict humans. Chances of pandemic are rife,” said Rajan Patil of the division of epidemiology at the School of Public Health, srm University, Kanchipuram, Tamil Nadu. But the speed at which the disease can spread is in the realm of speculation.Timm Harder of the Institute for Diagnostic Virology at the Friedrich-Loeffler Institute, Germany, said, “It is not clear if H5N1 will cause a human pandemic. There is greater risk when more humans are exposed. H5N1 has already assumed pandemic proportions in poultry.”

REUTERS

A study by researchers of the High Security Animal Disease Laboratory, Bhopal, showed that the virus which struck Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh in 2006 had a Eurasian lineage and came to the country via China. Experiments on chicken and mice have shown that H5N1 has become more lethal compared to 1997. Studies have showed that the virus has developed several deadlier sub-strains.

In May 2007 who sounded alarm bells: it announced that an avian influenza pandemic was inevitable and that the world should be prepared for it. An international ministerial conference was convened in December 2007 in Delhi to assess the world’s preparedness. The union agriculture and health ministries were asked to present a roadmap to check bird flu. The document presented at the meet was based on the country’s experience in successfully containing outbreaks in Maharashtra in 2006 and Manipur in 2007. “The government’s containment measures were more intensive than those known to be followed internationally,” minister Ramadoss had said.

It’s true that avian flu had been checked in Manipur in 10 days. But the outbreak was of a far lower scale then