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There has been increased interest in the possible impact of climate change on human health, particularly as it relates to the transmission of environmentally sensitive diseases such as malaria. Parham and Michael investigated the role that process-based mathematical models can play in providing strategic insights on the effects of climate change on malaria transmission. They evaluated a relatively simple to model to assess the simultaneous effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito population dynamics, malaria invasion, persistence and extinction, and the impact of seasonality on transmission. The authors report that rainfall patterns were strongly associated with malaria endemicity, invasion, and extinction. Temperature had a more complex relationship with transmission and a stronger influence on the rate of disease spread and survival. Seasonality of rainfall may have marked effects on reproduction and extinction dynamics, even at optimal transmission temperatures. The results of this study could improve understanding of the effects of temperature shifts on the global distribution of malaria in at-risk regions and the rate of malaria transmission within vulnerable populations.

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