The observed presence of water vapor convectively injected deep into the stratosphere over the United States can fundamentally change the catalytic chlorine/bromine free-radical chemistry of the lower stratosphere by shifting total available inorganic chlorine into the catalytically active free-radical form, ClO. This chemical shift markedly affects total ozone loss rates and makes the catalytic system extraordinarily sensitive to convective injection into the mid-latitude lower stratosphere in summer. Were the intensity and frequency of convective injection to increase as a result of climate forcing by the continued addition of CO2
and CH4 to the atmosphere, increased risk of ozone loss and associated increases in ultraviolet dosage would follow.