Global methane assessment 2030: baseline report

Catalyzed by the conclusions of the 2021 Global Methane Assessment, the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) launched at the November 2021 Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow. Participants joining the Pledge agree to take voluntary actions to contribute to a collective effort to reduce global anthropogenic methane emissions at least 30 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030 (GMP 2022). In 2022, GMP Partners requested that UNEP perform further analysis of baseline emissions scenarios to establish a harmonized estimate of the expected growth in methane emissions through 2030 absent additional action as well as to compare the impacts of the GMP with those baseline emissions. The GMA 2030 Baseline report. Why act now: an era for accelerated methane mitigation include a more complete characterization of future baseline emissions, as well as easing comparison of GMA conclusions, which are communicated against approximate baseline emission levels in 2030, against the GMP target, which is set against 2020 emissions levels. This analysis also allows us to highlight the importance of early and targeted methane mitigation by assessing the climate benefits of the GMP target against expected increasing methane emissions under the baseline emissions scenarios, and compare them to the impact of addressing methane solely through a decarbonization strategy.