HONG KONG: On the day of the Sichuan earthquake, I happened to be in Bengkulu, the province of Sumatra, Indonesia, which has been experiencing almost weekly quakes that measure about 5 on the Richter scale, following one that measured 8.5 last September. Despite its magnitude, that earthquake killed just 25 people. This raises the question: What combination of nature, chance, human activity and government competence determines the death toll when a cyclone, earthquake or tsunami strikes?