The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a large-scale national projection to estimate future mortality attributable to cold waves during 1960–2050 in 209 US cities.

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Many studies have reported the associations between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and increased risk of death. But, to our knowledge, none of them have used causal modeling approach or controlled for long-term temperature exposure. Few have used a general population sample. The researchers estimated the causal effects of long-term PM2.5 effect on mortality and tested the effect modifications by seasonal temperatures, census-tract-level socio-economic variables, and county-level health conditions.