Ashok Dasgupta Elections are due in many State Assemblies this year P. Chidambaram With Assembly polls due in a number of States during the year-end and the general elections in 2009, it is a foregone conclusion that the Union budget for the next fiscal, to be presented by Finance Minister P. Chidambaram in three days from now, will not be a harsh one, even at worst. For the simple reason that over the last few weeks, the people's aspirations of deriving some benefits by way of budgetary goodies have been raised so high through statements by various functionaries of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and its coalition partners that anything not matching up to their expectations would perhaps be viewed as a great betrayal. And that's something that the ruling regime can ill afford, especially when the government is set to unveil its policy programmes and statement of accounts, the fifth and final in its current Lok Sabha term. In effect, the government will not only have to but also be seen as compensating the

N. Ravi The challenge before the Finance Minister in preparing a pre-election budget is to balance the minimal tax sops needed to keep the markets in an upbeat mood with massive spending programmes that will find resonance with the electorate. Preparing for the election-eve budget, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram must have found the burden of expectations unusually high. Not only is he expected to provide the usual budgetary sops to please all but he is also called upon to correct the sense of drift that has come to mark the last one year of functioning of the United Progressive Alliance government and recapture the popular imagination. And this he has to accomplish without overly stretching either fiscal norms or his own credibility that will be called into question by a sudden show of solicitude at election time. Budgets are invariably characterised as pro-poor, pro-growth or pro-rich, depending on one's perspective and if such labels can normally be shrugged off, they become particularly critical at this time. In a sense, the Finance Minister will have to be riding the two horses of populism and fostering growth. For while this year's budget can be expected to lean heavily towards giveaways, it cannot ignore measures needed to sustain economic performance. True the mood of industry and the markets does not necessarily translate into the mood of the electorate as the National Democratic Alliance government found to its cost when its overdrawn

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Chidambaram may try to shift attention from high prices of essentials If everybody, including political parties, is talking about farmers it must be election time. Close to election, it has become more or less a trend for the government of the day to announce sops for the agriculture and rural sectors in its budget proposals. So even while the common man has to swallow the bitter pill of the "inevitable' petrol and diesel hike before the 2008-09 budget, there is a promise of a "populist budget' for farmers and the aam garib aadmi this year. Low growth rate With several States going to the polls this year ahead of the next year's Lok Sabha election, there may be an attempt to shift the attention from the high prices of essential commodities, low growth rate (2.3 per cent in the 10th Plan) in agriculture, the disconnect between a high Gross Domestic Product and the rural sector, with problems of displacement, migration, unemployment, suicides by farmers and impending food crisis. This budget is most likely to convey the last ditch attempt of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to redeem itself from the scars caused in the countryside by farmer suicides and dispossession of rural families on account of Special Economic Zones and other industrialisation projects. Without doubt, the Debt Relief Package for Institutional Loanee Farmers (as reported first in The Hindu) and the expansion of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) Programme will be at the centre of Finance Minister P. Chidambaram's budget proposals. Fertilizer policy Besides, it is expected that he will unveil a rationalised fertilizer policy to encourage balanced use of fertilizers, especially muriates, to revive farm soil. Some succour is also essential for the wives of indebted farmers who committed suicide. There is a growing demand to strengthen the National Agriculture Insurance Scheme (NAIS) and to have a Health Insurance Scheme for farm households, as various surveys showed that most the credits in the informal sector were not only farming related but also to meet the requirements of health, celebrations and even life-style. From all accounts, the pilot weather-based crop insurance may be expanded. Fund requirements It is estimated that the total fund requirement for the expansion of the NREGA from the present 330 districts to 600-odd will be about Rs. 16,000 crore. On the other hand, the debt relief, covering an estimated 35 per cent farmers who had availed themselves of bank loans, is estimated at Rs. 40,000 crore in the first year. The Union government will pay off the dues to banks. A Price Stabilisation Fund is also proposed to be set up with contributions from the government, banks and farmers. Well-placed sources hinted that the Finance Minister may cull out unspent funds from social sectors such as rural development, education and health to partially meet the requirement of the Farmers' Debt Relief Package. It is anybody's guess if the Minister will reduce the interest rate on farm loans from the current 7 to 4 per cent as recommended by the National Commission on Farmers. There is also a demand to raise the credit limit under the Kisan Credit Card scheme. There is an expectation that enhanced budgetary support will continue for the flagship rural programmes, including the swarozgar yojana (self-self groups), Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana, Indira Awas Yojana and the Drinking Water Supply programme. The highest increase, however, is expected in the Land Resources Programme under the Integrated Wasteland Management Programme. In the agriculture sector, allocation has to be enhanced for the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana to enhance production and productivity and to the National Food Security Mission to increase the output of rice, wheat and pulses. Both schemes are new and yet to take off. Irrigation schemes, horticulture mission and agriculture research will get the customary support, as growth in farm "allied sectors' comes from these areas. The National Rainfed Area Authority is most certainly likely to get financial support. Food subsidy The food subsidy bill is likely to cross the Rs 30,000 crore-mark. This is due to the wide difference between the minimum support prices (MSP) paid to farmers and the central issue price of grains sold through the Public Distribution System, as well as on account of the food grains import bill. The subsidy bill to go up further as the food grain stocks are expected to dwindle by April 1, possibly resulting in more imports. With apprehensions of an avian influenza pandemic, a comprehensive rehabilitation package for the poultry industry and bird flu-affected farmers, as part of a Bio-Security Policy, will be announced in the budget, if not earlier. However, the package may include only such poultry farmers, who get linked to institutional poultry farms and the industry. It remains to be seen how the government's packages will play out for the thousands of those in the informal sector who do not have the income and the collateral to avail themselves of institutional loans. Funds utilisation It is expected that in this last year of the UPA government's regime, the emphasis will be on consolidation, with focus on better implementation, monitoring and utilisation of funds. In particular, the Congress has shown signs of being zealous of taking credit for the central funds made available to States, to reap a harvest during election time. The biggest challenge, however, is making agriculture viable for the 82 per cent small and marginal farmers and bailing them out of the clutches of the informal system of borrowing.

The National Urban Health Mission (NUHM) will cover 100 cities, including the four metros and Bangalore, in the first phase. Of the 429 cities identified for the five-year-mission, which aims at improving the health of the urban poor and other disadvantaged sections, facilitating access to the health system, the remaining 329 will be covered in the second phase. This will benefit 22 crore people, with the focus on a five-crore slum population. All cities with a population above one lakh, State capitals and even district headquarters will be brought under NUHM purview. "This is the second largest health programme that will fill the lacunae created after the implementation of the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) and take care of the unmet needs in the fast urbanisation process,' Union Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss told The Hindu here on Wednesday. The Rs. 9,159-crore mission, to be launched in a few months, would focus on private participation and insurance. "The scheme is likely to take off much faster due to awareness, presence of non-governmental organisations and better accessibility in the cities.' The Ministry proposed to implement the programme by strengthening the existing systems, rationalising manpower and resources, and filling the gaps in service delivery through private-public partnerships. "The guidelines for administration and operationalisation of the mission will flow from the NRHM which will then be implemented by urban civic bodies,' Dr. Ramadoss said. As far as possible, the NUHM would converge with institutional structures such as the Jawaharlal Nehru National Renewal Mission and the Integrated Child Development Services. The mission would need 4,500 Urban Health Centres acting as focal points; of these 2,500 existing structures would be strengthened, followed by priority to private-public partnership and creation of infrastructure. Each centre would be a referral point with the facilities of out-patient department and maternal healthcare. Accredited Social Health Activists of the NRHM in the cities would be known as Urban Social Health Activists, each catering for a population of 2,000.

Lead author of the World Development Report-2008, Alain de Janvry, has warned that the global demand for food is expected to double within the next 50 years, while the natural resources that sustain agriculture will become "increasingly scarce, degraded and vulnerable to the impact of climatic changes'. Delivering a lecture on "Agriculture in the contemporary world' here over the week-end, Prof. Alain de Janvry said the agriculture sector not only needed greater investments, but should also be placed at the centre of the planning process to achieve the U.N. Millennium Development Goal of halving extreme poverty and hunger by 2015. The lecture was organised by the Institute of Development Studies (IDS) here. Prof. Alain de Janvry

The Himalayan Policy Campaign Committee, an umbrella organisation of various environmental groups, voluntary organisations and NGOs based in the Himalayan region has requested the Lok Sabha Standing Committee on Rural development to defer the Land Acquisition (Amendment) Bill, 2007 and Resettlement and Rehabilitation Bill, 2007. The committee while giving certain suggestions to be incorporated in the Bills has demanded that specialist NGOs and peoples groups on environmental issues should also be consulted. The governing body of the HPCC in a representation to the Chairman of Standing Committee Mr. Kalyan Singh has demanded that the Land Acquisition Act should be repealed since it leads to a disruption in the eco-systems. And when the ecosystems are damaged, destroyed or altered, it affects not only the communities and their livelihoods in the immediate vicinity but also downstream communities. Corporate rights The HPCC while raising the issue of corporate rights versus community rights said the later should be given preference since it is the community which was dependent on the natural resources and has natural rights on them from the time immemorial. Increasingly governments around the world are treating the notion of objectives of corporations as equal to national interest. This is grossly incorrect, says the HPCC. Any project that is decided on the merit of profit cannot be in national interest but in the interest of shareholders of a corporation. Therefore, national interest should be restricted to only security concerns, demanded the NGO. The HPCC is objecting to rampant construction of hydro electric projects in Himachal Pradesh and other hill States from a long time now.

Seeking relief: UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi listens to the grievances of farmers from Haryana, Rajasthan and Maharashtra at her residence in New Delhi on Thursday. Congress president Sonia Gandhi on Thursday assured delegations of farmers from Haryana, Rajasthan and Maharashtra that she would convey their budgetary demands to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram. The delegations sought waiver of farmers' debts, reduction in interest rates on loans, remunerative prices for farm produce, health insurance for farm families and crop insurance. They highlighted the high costs of inputs, crop losses on account of calamities (Rajasthan delegation spoke about the heavy damage to mustard crop from frost), lack of adequate power and poor quality of seeds. Among those who formed part of the delegations were S.S. Surjewala, Ashok Gehlot and Mukul Wasnik. On Friday, farmers' representatives have convened an emergency meeting of the National Council of the organisation of farmers and farm labour to discuss the financial and social problems of farmers. They will finalise a charter of demands to be sent to the Prime Minister.

Solid proof: A farmer showing samples of crops, damaged due to poor supply of power and water, to BJP leaders during the Kisan Mahapanchayat in Bhopal on Wednesday. The Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, announced a bonanza of relief for farmers at the Kisan Mahapanchayat (farmers' convention) organised at the Jamboree grounds here on Wednesday.

For making a difference to the lives of animals by kindness, courage The 10th Venu Menon National Animal Awards were presented to six individuals, two organisations and one community at a function here on Tuesday for making a difference to the lives of animals by acts of kindness and extraordinary courage. Fred O'Regan, president of the International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW), delivered the 10th Venu Menon Memorial Lecture on the occasion.