Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks thereof broadly understood for
most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most significant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially
as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no comprehensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica
posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules
carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year’s first season (2007–2008) and assessing
propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica’s climate.

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