Southern Africa Economic Outlook 2022

The economic outlook for Southern Africa will be affected by an additional threat that arises from global warming. The 13 countries are intertwined in a climate-water-energy-food nexus with a high reliance on climate-sensitive sectors. Consistent with the shift in global climate, Southern Africa is likely to observe a rise in mean temperature which exceeds the global mean. Models suggest that Southern Africa will experience decreased and erratic rainfall, severe droughts, episodic floods, intense tropical storms, frost, and strong winds, among other effects, which are likely to impact many sectors such as agriculture and livestock, water, tourism, and health. Climate change will eventually also impact national income, government budget, finance, growth, and development performance. The climate-related risks are even higher for the most vulnerable, often found among the rural population, youth and women employed in the agricultural sector.