Competition over limited water resources is one of the main concerns for the coming decades. Although water issues alone have not been the sole trigger for warfare in the past, tensions over freshwater management and use represent one of the main concerns in political relations between riparian states and may exacerbate existing tensions, increase regional instability and social unrest. Previous studies made great efforts to understand how international water management problems were addressed by actors in a more cooperative or confrontational way.

In summer (pre-monsoon) of recent years, low water level among the last few decades, has been observed in several lower Indian reaches of the Ganges (or Ganga) river (with estimated river water level depletion rates at the range of −0.5 to −38.1 cm/year between summers of 1999 and 2013 in the studied reaches). Here, we show this Ganges river depletion is related to groundwater basefow reduction caused by ongoing observed groundwater storage depletion in the adjoining Gangetic aquifers (Ganges basin, −0.30±0.07cm/year or −2.39±0.56 km3/year).

This paper presents future climate and runoff projections for the South Asia region under the RCP8.5 scenario with climate change informed by 42 CMIP5 GCMs. Runoff is projected for 0.5° grids using hydrological models with future climate inputs obtained by empirically scaling the historical climate series.

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