Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and extreme sea-level projections along the east coast of India in a future climate scenario

The simulations from the regional climate model, PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies), were analysed for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in a baseline scenario (1961–1990) and a future climate scenario (2071–2100), A2. The analysis showed an increase in the frequency of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the late monsoon (August and September) season in the A2 scenario compared to the baseline scenario. However, composite ground-tracks of cyclones do not show any appreciable spatial difference between the two simulations. Extreme sea-level projections along the east coast of India were made using a storm surge model developed for the Bay of Bengal, driven by winds and surface atmospheric pressure obtained from PRECIS. For A2 simulations, a uniform sea-level rise of 4 mm/yr from 1990 was included from the present levels.