This research paper highlights the risks and likely impacts if the goals set under the Paris Agreement are not met, and the world follows an emissions pathway consistent with recent historical trends. Simply updating – i.e. without significantly enhancing – NDCs will not guarantee the Paris Agreement goals are met; nor will enhanced pledges without swift and decisive delivery of those pledges. The governments of
highly emitting countries have an opportunity to accelerate emissions reductions through ambitious revisions of their NDCs, significantly enhancing policy delivery mechanisms, and incentivizing rapid large-scale investment in low-carbon technologies. This will lead to cheaper energy and avert the worst climate impacts.