This Climate Action Tracker update shows that current emissions and policies - and future emission trends - are likely to lead to higher 21st century emission levels than previously projected. This, in turn, implies a higher level of warming by 2100. Assuming current emissions trends, implemented and presently planned policies there is a 40% chance of warming exceeding 4°C by 2100 and a 10% chance of it exceeding 5°C in the same period, with a likely warming projected at 3.8°C by 2100. The Climate Action Tracker is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries. The joint project of Ecofys, Climate Analytics and PIK provides an up-to-date assessment of individual national pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions