In 2006, Uganda’s hopes of developing an oil industry were boosted by the confirmation of “commercially recoverable” quantities of oil in the Albertine Basin. By 2013, three international oil companies were lined up to develop the oil fields with first oil expected in 2018. Uganda’s government had high expectations that the exploitation of this resource endowment, could be the means by which Uganda could lift its economy to middle income status within a decade, bringing with it jobs, fuel supply security and most importantly, foreign currency revenues. This analysis is part of the global sovereign risk programme exploring the impact of the climate transition on public finances and financial stability and follows on from work in South Africa in 2019.