2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways

The IPCC’s sixth assessment report (AR6) provides crucial information on how to tackle climate change, in particular identifying pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot. However, many of the pathways in the AR6 database are not fully Paris Agreement compatible in that they do not bring emissions to net zero in the second half of this century. Many also rely on unsustainable levels of carbon dioxide removal and/or do not factor in recent progress, such as the declining cost of renewables. In this briefing, extract 24 pathways from the IPCC AR6 database that can guide the global energy transition to net zero in a sustainable way. These Paris-compatible pathways show what’s needed to limit warming to 1.5°C if don’t bet on likely unfeasible levels of future carbon dioxide removal. From these set robust 1.5°C-aligned 2030 targets, including for renewable rollout and fossil fuel decline.