This paper claiming gap to 44Gt emissions in 2020 (associated with a 50/50 2C pathway) is only 2Gt, assuming high end of current pledges.

This paper sets out an assessment of the latest national positions regarding emission reduction targets and actions going into the forthcoming negotiations in Copenhagen. These targets and intentions are quantified and translated into global emissions to give an understanding of how close we are to a
possible agreement consistent with keeping temperature increase below 2