Limits to the availability of key natural resources (such as land, food, water and oil) and climate change have been linked to social unrest and violent conflict. Analysis that ignores the reliance of society and the economy on natural resources underestimates the exposure to systemic risks. Conflict over natural resources can occur both over the fair distribution of an abundant high value resource, or access to a scarce resource. This report focuses only on the latter i.e. where local demand for a resource is greater than available supply, either due to access, distribution or affordability.