The analysis presented here considers whether the INDCs that were submitted by 23 October 2015 are consistent with a reasonable chance of not exceeding the 2°C warming limit. As of 23 October 2015, 154 countries (including the 28 Member States of the European Union) had submitted INDCs, including pledges to limit or reduce annual national emissions after 2020. These 154 countries were together responsible for over 85% of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases, and represented over 90% of global gross domestic product (GDP), in 2012. Also compare the level of annual global emissions in 2030 implied by these INDCs with pathways for both hypothetical ‘business as usual’ (BAU) and those consistent with a reasonable chance of not breaching the 2°C warming limit.