Despite government promises, warming projections have not improved since Glasgow two years ago, amid worsening climate impacts. In a year where every continent experienced record-breaking heat, wildfires, tropical cyclones or some other extreme events, there has been no discernable shift in action. Governments’ 2030 targets will lead to 2.5°C of warming by the end of the century, 0.1°C higher than last year. This change is due to weak existing targets rather than any major shifts in new NDC updates: we take the level of emissions anticipated under current policies for those countries that we expect to overachieve their weak 2030 targets.