Rain-fed agriculture currently constitutes 60–95% of farmed land across the developing world. Changing rainfall patterns could have a large impact on agriculture in developing countries. Using over 20 different climate models, researchers have projected how precipitation could be affected by climate change.

Using 21st century climate model projections we show that for many crop-producing regions, average precipitation will change by more than the long-term natural variability, even under a low-emission scenario. However, emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement can significantly reduce cropped land affected.