This study proposes a criterion for the real-time extended range prediction of heat waves based on the grand ensemble prediction system indigenously developed by the extended range prediction group of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).

The Indian summer monsoons of 2013 and 2014 had contrasting onset and progression phases. The onset was timely and the progression of 2013 monsoon was the fastest in the last 70 years, whereas 2014 had a delayed onset and a very lethargic progression phase compared to 2013.