This study proposes a criterion for the real-time extended range prediction of heat waves based on the grand ensemble prediction system indigenously developed by the extended range prediction group of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
In this scientific research report, monthly, seasonal and annual area weighted rainfall time series for all-India, 5 homogeneous regions and 30 meteorological subdivisions for the period 1871-2016 are constructed on the basis of a fixed and well distributed network of 306 rain gauge stations over India.
The Indian summer monsoons of 2013 and 2014 had contrasting onset and progression phases. The onset was timely and the progression of 2013 monsoon was the fastest in the last 70 years, whereas 2014 had a delayed onset and a very lethargic progression phase compared to 2013.
Regional climate model simulations were undertaken in order to produce climate scenarios for the near future (2020s), the medium-term future (2050s) and the long-term future (2080s). The climate scenarios included changes in rainfall and temperature on annual, monthly and daily time steps.
The main motivation of this comprehensive study is to understand climatological and fluctuation features of the extreme rainfall events (EREs) considering
detailed account of spatial variability of rainfall occurrences. Experiences suggest that the EREs are embedded in the large-scale, long period intense rainfall activities during the summer monsoon period.
South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) data set.