Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change
Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change
The trace element selenium is essential for human health and is required in a narrow dietary concentration range. Insufficient selenium intake has been estimated to affect up to 1 billion people worldwide. Dietary selenium availability is controlled by soil–plant interactions, but the mechanisms governing its broad-scale soil distributions are largely unknown. Using data-mining techniques, we modeled recent (1980–1999) distributions and identified climate–soil interactions as main controlling factors. Furthermore, using moderate climate change projections, we predicted future (2080–2099) soil selenium losses from 58% of modeled areas (mean loss = 8.4%). Predicted losses from croplands were even higher, with 66% of croplands predicted to lose 8.7% selenium. These losses could increase the worldwide prevalence of selenium deficiency.