Through a detailed analysis of the FAO database, we have constructed a generalized representation of the nitrogen transfers characterizing the current agro-food system (GRAFS) of 12 macro-regions of the world in terms of functional relationships between crop farming, livestock breeding and human nutrition. Based on this model, and maintaining the current cropland areas and the performance of cropping and livestock systems in each region, we have assessed the possibilities of meeting the protein requirements of the estimated world population in 2050, according to various combinations of three critical drivers namely human diet (total amount of protein consumed and share of animal protein in this total), regional livestock production and crop fertilization intensity, in each region. The results show that feeding the projected 2050 world population would generally imply higher levels of inter-regional trade and of environmental nitrogen contamination than the current levels, but that the scenarios with less recourse to inter-regional trade generally produce less N losses to the environment.

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