The summer monsoon of 2019 began with a massive deficit in the all-India June rainfall of about 33% of the mean. This led to considerable anxiety since a large deficit in June had occurred last in the summer monsoon of 2014, which had turned out to be a drought.

We have addressed the question of whether the massive deficit of 42% in rainfall over the Indian region in June 2014 can be attributed primarily to the El Niño. We have shown that the variation of convection over the Northern part of the Tropical West Pacific (NWTP: 120–150E, 20–30N) plays a major role in determining the all-India rainfall in June with deficit (excess) in rainfall associated with enhancement (suppression) of convection over NWTP.

After an early onset over Kerala on 23 May 2009, further advance of the monsoon over the Indian region was delayed by about two weeks with the monsoon restricted to the west coast and southern
peninsula until 24 June. This resulted in a massive deficit in the all-India rainfall of 54% of the long term average for this period.