As the climate warms, the carbon balance of arctic ecosystems will respond in two opposing ways: Plants will grow faster, leading to a carbon sink, while thawing permafrost will lead to decomposition and loss of soil carbon. However, thawing permafrost also releases nitrogen that fertilizes plant growth, offsetting some carbon losses. The balance of these processes determines whether these ecosystems will act as a stabilizing or destabilizing feedback to climate change.

The large uncertainty in soil carbon–climate feedback predictions has been attributed to the incorrect parameterization of decomposition temperature sensitivity and microbial carbon use efficiency. Empirical experiments have found that these parameters vary spatiotemporally, but such variability is not included in current ecosystem models. Here we use a thermodynamically based decomposition model to test the hypothesis that this observed variability arises from interactions between temperature, microbial biogeochemistry, and mineral surface sorptive reactions.