This study describes integration of climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble with the LARS-WG weather generator, which delivers an attractive option for the downscaling of large-scale climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments. A subset of 18 GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were integrated with LARS-WG.
Many studies have reported statistically significant associations between bird migratory phenology and climatic variables, and, consequently, it is mostly accepted that recent shifts in migration dates are a reaction to present climate change.
Empirical evidence for changed timing of migration in birds is emerging from both American and Euro-African migration systems. These changes are usually interpreted as a consequence of changes in climate. Responses in timing of migration and breeding may differ among species, and the adaptive significance is not well understood.
Southern Africa is a region facing multiple stressors, including chronic, recurrent food insecurity and persistent threats of famine. Climate information, including seasonal climate forecasts, has been heralded as a promising tool for early-warning systems and agricultural risk management in southern Africa. Nevertheless, there is concern that climate information, for example climate forecasts, are not realizing their potential value in the region.
