Air pollution from marine vessels in the U.S. High Arctic in 2025

Marine vessels are a large source of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions, including CO2, NOX, SOX, particulate matter and black carbon, which impact local air quality, human health, and the global climate. Since the record-low Arctic Sea ice extent recorded in September of 2012, vessel activity and the associated impacts have been the focus of a number of different strategies for addressing operations, activities, and environmental concerns. The 2013 release of the U.S. National Strategy for the Arctic Region (NSAR) and its Implementation Plan (IP) in January 2014 highlight the issues of importance, including shipping and maritime infrastructure. A report recently released by the U.S Committee on the Marine Transportation System (CMTS) under the Department of Transportation (DOT) presented a set of scenarios for increased Arctic maritime activity in 2025. This study
presents an emissions inventory based on the low- and mid-range scenarios indicating a potential 150 to 600 percent increase in emissions by 2025. Potential policies to constrain emissions growth include a global switch to cleaner marine fuels and the expansion of existing emission control area for marine vessels.