The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact tracing with quarantine and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak.

The fact that not everyone with Ebola virus disease (EVD) has died during the ongoing outbreak in West Africa, with an estimated case fatality rate of 70.8% by September 2014, suggests that some kind of immunity to this virus is possible. If left unchecked, this scenario will undoubtedly shift to a higher figure, as health-care conditions in many of the countries affected may not always enable infected hosts to recover.

A substantial scale-up in public health response is needed to control the unprecedented Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in west Africa. Current international commitments seek to expand intervention capacity in three areas: new EVD treatment centres, case ascertainment through contact tracing, and household protective kit allocation. The researchers aimed to assess how these interventions could be applied individually and in combination to avert future EVD cases and deaths.