This consultant study introduces a partial equilibrium model to project the mix of renewable fuels most likely to be used to comply with the Commission’s set of proposed targets for the road and aviation sectors.

By 2030, the German government aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the buildings sector by two-thirds relative to 1990 levels. The heating sector will be an important part of this goal; in German residences, about 60% of final energy demand goes to space heating, and two-thirds of space heating is met with fossil fuels.

Alternative jet fuels (AJFs) are among the few available in-sector approaches to reduce aviation sector emissions. Although the aviation sector has not played a prominent role in fuels policy to date, policymakers are increasingly incorporating aviation fuels into long-term strategies as the road sector is electrified.

Renewable methane could conceivably displace natural gas for use in existing vehicle fleets, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as well as emissions of air pollutants like NOx. It is important that policy makers assess the realistic potential for renewable methane.