Raising ambition through fossil fuel subsidy reform: greenhouse gas emissions results modelling from 26 countries

This working paper models the impact of the removal of fossil fuel subsidies on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions for the following countries: Algeria, Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Egypt, Germany, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, the United States, Venezuela, Vietnam and Zambia. The research found simple country average GHG emission reductions of 6 per cent from 2018 until 2025, compared to business as usual. With an additional 10 per cent energy tax from 2025 until 2030 and a shift of 30 per cent of the savings from reforms and of revenues from taxation into investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency (i.e., a swap), GHG emission reductions improve to an average of 13.2 per cent by 2030. Cumulative fiscal savings from fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) alone by 2030 total USD 2.56 trillion across the countries analyzed, with total cumulative GHG emissions abated from FFSR of 4.8 GtCO2e by 2030. For every tonne of CO2e removed through FFSR, governments save an average of USD 93.