The complexity and politicization of climate computer models can hinder communication of their science, uses and limitations. Evidence suggests that information on climate models in US newspapers is declining and that when it appears, it is often within sceptic discourses. Furthermore, model projections are frequently portrayed as probably being inaccurate, and political opinion outlets provide more explanation of model results than many news sources.
Climate change mitigation commitments and basic carbon-cycle science both require reliable information on carbon dioxide emissions. Uncertainties in energy data and carbon dioxide emissions estimates are particularly important when they involve large emitters.
In their comment, Rodríguez-Sánchez et al. claim that our conclusions on the climatic debt of birds and butterflies are premature because introducing statistical and biological uncertainties in species-specific thermal tolerance (species temperature index, STI) would blur the temporal trend in the community temperature index CTI). Here, we show why our results are not affected by this uncertainty and further assess the STI uncertainty and its consequences. (Correspondence)
As modern climate change causes rapid geographical shifts of environmental conditions, there are great concerns that numerous species could be unable to track suitable environments, thereby incurring a 'climatic debt'. Recently, Devictor et al. reported that the composition of bird and butterfly communities across Europe has changed at a lower rate than could be expected given the observed increase in temperature. They concluded that communities are accumulating a significant climatic debt.
An international agreement on reducing greenhouse-gas emissions requires large financial flows from richer to poorer countries. However, the amount and justification for such transfers is still contested. Now research has developed an argument for transfer payments by estimating regional carbon prices versus a global price, and found that in the case of a global carbon price of US$35 per tonne of carbon dioxide, a flow of US$15–48 billion per year would be needed.
This study provides a quantitative approach that predicts the response of coral calcification to the combined effects of ocean acidification and global warming. The analysis suggests that warm-water aragonitic corals are more resilient to climate change than previously thought, whereas marine organisms that precipitate calcitic skeletons are particularly vulnerable.
Using information on current species distributions and dispersal traits, this study forecasts climate-driven range dynamics of plant species across the European Alps. Simulations predict moderate range contractions over the twenty-first century; however, more severe effects of climate warming on mountain plant diversity are expected in the longer term.
Increasing shrub cover on Arctic tundra is linked to climate warming, which is partially amplified by sea ice feedbacks, but the nature of these interactions remains poorly understood. Now research indicates that tundra plant productivity in late spring relates to sea-ice-driven temperature amplification but that the growing season peak is more closely associated with persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.
South of Africa, the Agulhas ocean current system transports warm, salty water from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. This study shows that the mesoscale variability of the Agulhas system has intensified over recent decades, apparently owing to enhanced trade winds over the tropical Indian Ocean.
